The Wall Street consensus for 2026 is once again neatly constructed and widely accepted: continued expansion, cooling inflation, modest Fed easing. History suggests that’s precisely where alpha disappears. In our 2026 Annual Investment Outlook, we identify three structural inflection points where market positioning misreads the underlying reality—a power constraint that won’t surface in earnings until mid-2026, a freight cycle Wall Street is interpreting incorrectly, and a semiconductor chokepoint China cannot replicate without first solving a far more fundamental problem. The evidence is already visible. The pricing is not.
SLG is an independent investment management and advisory firm serving ultra-high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions.
